The 12 Stats of Christmas
16 Nov 2017
Whether you’re a fraud analyst or a fraudster (which we hope you’re not!), this is the busiest time of year. It can be hard to wrap your head around the magnitude of holiday e-commerce – let alone the fraud. How much stuff are people buying on their computers and phones? And how many of those transactions are legitimate?
Here are twelve statistics to help orient you in these last, precious seconds before the holiday rush.
1. This year’s holiday e-commerce revenue will be huge.
Just how huge? According to NetElixir, this year’s holiday e-commerce sales will top last year’s revenue by a whopping 10%.
2. But that’s slightly less than last year’s growth rate.
Last year’s holiday e-commerce revenue was up 11% from the previous year. Analysts attribute the slight dip in growth to Amazon Prime Day shipping, the string of retail stores that have recently closed their doors, and lower price-points online.
3. This holiday season, the biggest winner will be Amazon.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Amazon is poised to do very well this holiday season, accounting for about 34% of holiday e-commerce sales. That’s $28.5 billion – which is $5.5 billion more than last year.
4. Fewer people are visiting actual retail stores.
With the rise of online and mobile shopping, people aren’t bothering to go to the store anymore. After all, why contend with other stressed-out holiday shoppers when you could opt for one-click checkout? Last year, foot traffic at traditional retailers was down 12.3% from 2015.
5. Shoppers are getting into the holiday spirit earlier and earlier.
Last year, holiday shopping began in earnest the week before Thanksgiving. To keep pace with shoppers’ needs, many online retailers now start their Black Friday sales before Black Friday!
6. But shoppers are procrastinating, too.
Confident that their items will ship in time, many consumers are leaving their shopping until the last minute. In 2016, the holiday shopping season ran close to Christmas. That trend is expected to continue this year.
7. Cyber Monday is the most lucrative day of the year.
Every year, consumers flock to their computers to take advantage of Cyber Monday sales. And every year, it pays off for retailers. Last year, shoppers spent a mind-blowing $2.67 billion on Cyber Monday alone.
8. But the second most lucrative day of the year isn’t what you’d expect.
It has to be Black Friday, right? Think again! The second most lucrative day of the holiday season is actually the day after Cyber Monday. In 2016, shoppers spent around $2.2 billion on November 29.
9. Mobile continues to be a force to reckon with.
The amount of holiday shopping consumers do on their phones has been growing every year. But this year, expect to see a new record. For the first time ever, more people will use their phones to visit retailers’ websites than their computers.
10. And mobile revenue is catching up, too.
Businesses can’t quite expect to generate more revenue from mobile shoppers than from online shoppers just yet. But the gap is narrowing: mobile shoppers are expected to account for 45% of businesses’ holiday revenue this season.
11. Holiday e-commerce fraud is rising fast.
To get an idea just how fast, take a look at last year’s holiday fraud. Over the holidays, online fraud increased by 31% from 2015, even though overall online transactions increased by just 16%. That means 1 out of every 97 transactions was fraudulent.
12. It’s going to be a long, hard Christmas Eve for fraud analysts.
Christmas Eve is typically the fraudiest day of the year. Last year, fraud attempts spiked by nearly 2% on December 24; the previous year, the spike was about 2.5%.
It’s going to take more than a venti eggnog latte to get you through the holiday fraud rush. To help you prepare, check out our podcast or this handy toolkit for Sift Science customers. Good luck out there!